The following is a guest post from Chip Buck. Chip writes for Fire Brand of the American League, a blog about the Boston Red Sox; and It’s About the Money Stupid, a blog about the New York Yankees. You can follow him on Twitter @Chip_Buck.
If there’s one commodity in baseball whose value exceeds all others, it is good quality starting pitching. Right now, the Giants are flush with it with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, Barry Zito, and Ryan Vogelsong filing out their depth chart, 1-6. While, yes, this might seem like bragging to fans of teams like the Royals whose rotation essentially goes one deep (thank you Jeff Francis); the Giants’ depth will eventually force their hand into a very difficult decision. As we all know, major league starting rotations only go five deep. As a result, having six healthy pitchers poses a problem that can only be remedied by either trading a pitcher away, or moving one into the bullpen. Though most teams would gladly accept this problem as one of their own, it’s not one that lends itself to a simple solution.
As I see it, the Giants have a few options to consider:
1. Trade either Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez for an impact bat
2. Push Zito into the bullpen with Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, and Vogelsong filling out the rotation.
3. Move Vogelsong to the bullpen, while keeping the Opening Day rotation intact.
Having only scored 312 runs (as of 7/4), the Giants are in serious need of a power bat that can fit into the middle of their lineup. Though Pablo Sandoval, Cody Ross, and Pat Burrell (when he’s allowed to play) have produced admirably at the plate this season, they’re complimentary players, so we can’t count on them to carry the load over the long haul. As a result, it makes a lot of sense to consider trading one of the Giants’ surplus arms. Moving either Cain or Sanchez would allow the Giants to not only deal from a position of strength, but also address two problems that desperately need solutions. Unfortunately, the trade market is light on obtainable, reasonably priced impact bats. The ones who are available (see Jeff Francoeur) aren’t worth giving up either a Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez in return. So while this might seem like an optimal opportunity for the Giants to shore up their offense; it’d be prudent for them to wait until the offseason to make a move involving one of their pitchers.
On the other hand, true pitching depth is something that’s highly coveted, but rarely achieved. Every offseason, teams from the Yankees and Red Sox to the Pirates and Astros go dumpster diving in hopes of uncovering a hidden low-risk gem from the scrap heap that is retread, injury-riddled former stars and quad-A rejects. The reason? They’re looking to fill out their rotation beyond the fifth slot. Very rarely do teams get through an entire season with their core rotation remaining intact. When the inevitable happens, teams want to be prepared with a viable replacement rather than have their hand forced into promoting a prospect before he’s ready. Rarely do these replacement pitchers pitch beyond the replacement level (imagine that), but occasionally teams catch lightning in a bottle. Ryan Vogelsong is this season’s classic example of a replacement level pitcher performing far beyond his team’s reasonable expectations.
Currently, the Giants have six viable starters on their depth chart. Without a clear candidate to fill the seventh spot, the question remains: Should the Giants even consider trading one of their starters away? The simple answer is yes, but with extreme caution. No one, not even Miss Cleo, can accurately predict the future. Just days after (theoretically) trading Jonathan Sanchez away, Matt Cain could be stricken with a shoulder strain that costs him 6-8 weeks on the disabled list. Now, the once vaunted, six-deep Giants rotation would only go four deep with Shane Loux or Dan Runzler (or whomever) filling the fifth spot. While that rotation would still rank among the better ones in the league, no one could deny that it’s significantly weaker. For a team with a relatively impotent offense, this could spell doom for the Giants. Though I’d never advocate making a move (or not making a move) based on external pressure or fear of the unknown, it’s still something Brian Sabean and his staff needs to consider before deciding to move forward with such a move.
What about the flip side of our equation? What if instead of trading away one of their starters, they moved one to the bullpen? Clearly, this has some benefits. For starters, the Giants would not only retain their starting rotation depth, but also provide them with some cover should an injury occur. Additionally, it would help solidify an already strong bullpen. The only question is who would the Giants demote?
While I’ve heard recent calls to demote Sanchez to the bullpen, I don’t think that’s in the Giants best interest. Sure, he’s struggled with command this season, but he’s still a better pitcher than either of the two above named pitchers. Certainly, he has greater upside. In my mind, there are only two viable choices: Zito and Vogelsong.
If we were to base our decision purely on this season’s performance, Vogelsong would win the rotation spot without question. After years of struggling with poor control, below average strikeout rates, and a forgettable batted ball profile (23% LD rate prior to 2011), it seemed unlikely he’d materialize into anything more than a replacement level pitcher; especially in his age-34 season.
This year, Vogelsong’s done a complete 180. He’s striking batters out, commanding his pitches, and cutting back on his walks. Still, he appears to have gotten lucky on balls in play (.256 BABIP) and first pitch strikes (his 2011 rate exceeds his career average by more than 7%), which indicates the good fortune he experienced during the first half of the season will likely regress in the second half. The good news is that despite a 1.24-run differential between his ERA (2.13) and his FIP (3.37), his relatively low FIP indicates his performance hasn’t been a fluke. That said, Vogelsong has thrown only 84-1/3 innings this season. Considering the small sample size involved, I don’t think it’s fair to assume that his FIP is a true representation of his abilities. There’s still plenty of time for his performance to regress as this innings workload increases. If the Giants decide to go with Vogelsong, they’ll need to proceed with some degree of caution.
Barry Zito, on the other hand, is an established major league starting pitcher with a well-known track record. In his first four seasons since crossing the bay, he’s produced 7.4 fWAR in value. While I’m sure the Giants didn’t envision paying him $20M+ for just under 2 WAR per season, he’s still managed to provide some value as a consistent, above average number five starter.*
* Yes, I’m sure that’s of little comfort to Giants fans. Seriously though, how many teams get 2 WAR out of the fifth slot in their rotation? Not many.
This season, Zito has had little time to establish himself in the rotation. He hit the DL after spraining his foot in mid-April, and has only made one start since returning on June 28th. When he has been on the mound, his performance has been spotty and underwhelming. He’s allowed a ton of contact (86.7%); displayed inconsistent command (10/12 K/BB ratio); and lost nearly 2 MPH on his fastball since last season. All-in-all, despite his 3.81 ERA, his performance hasn’t given anyone the warm fuzzies. The fact that his objectionable 4.56 FIP is 0.75-runs higher than his ERA certainly doesn’t help either. Still, it’s important to note that he’s only pitched 26 innings this season (and only six innings since returning on 6/28), so he’s probably not the pitcher we’ll see at the end of the season. The Giants could certainly do worse than to proceed with Zito as their fifth starter. Although his ceiling is low, his overall performance tends to be very consistent. That might not seem exciting or sexy, but there’s something to be said for consistency.
What should the Giants do? While it’s an incredibly tough call, I think the Giants need entertain the idea of trading one of their starting pitchers with an eye towards moving Vogelsong, not Zito, to the bullpen if they can’t negotiate adequate value in return. Yes, he’s has pitched incredibly well this season (earning an All-Star selection), but his track record doesn’t indicate he’ll be able to continue his recent run of success long term. Although I feel that his first half FIP indicates his performance hasn’t been a fluke, I’m not convinced that he’s pitching at his true talent level. The most recent (and pretty bearish) ZiPS projections support my opinion, predicting a 5.48 ERA/4.49 FIP for the remainder of the season. With regression likely, it’s better to err on the side of caution rather than hope for continued high rewards. The Giants have milked more value out of Vogelsong than they could’ve reasonably imagined, so the smart move is to ship him to the bullpen where he can still provide some value.
Furthermore, it’s hard to fathom management agreeing to move Zito to the bullpen considering the amount of money committed to him through 2013. By doing so, Sabean would essentially be admitting that he’d made a colossal mistake in signing the lefty. Perhaps the only way the Giants could get out from underneath Zito’s contract would be if they traded him for another player saddled with an albatross deal (see Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano). This seems both far fetched and counterproductive. Going forward, it’s in the Giants best interest to slot Zito back into the number five slot, and ride him to a steady, consistent (and prorated) 2 WAR season. Like I said earlier, you could do a lot worse out of your fifth starter.
