Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Roundtable: Trade Deadline, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Vogelsong

This is the first of (hopefully) many monthly roundtables. For August, joining Zack and myself is Rory Paap -- formerly of Paapfly.com, and currently writing at Bay City Ball (ESPN SweetSpot) -- joined us.



1. As of today, the Giants have made three trades, acquiring Jeff Keppinger, Orlando Cabrera, and Carlos Beltran. Overall, and assuming they don't trade for anyone else, how would you grade this trade deadline?

Rory: I don’t like to grade things, but I’ll try. Reason being, it’s really hard to know what was truly available and what the cost might have been, and that says nothing of the enormity of data they have on both their own prospects and, presumably, the players in question. Of course, you sometimes wonder if they use it.

Anyway, I’ll give Sabean a solid B for his work this deadline. Carlos Beltran was expensive, but that was very expected. If he gets hurt and/or doesn’t produce at all, then you can call it a disaster, but it’s hard to assign blame to that. He was the best player available, and despite being a rental, the cost was high accordingly. I liked the Jeff Keppinger deal. He seemed to be a league-average hitter at a position where the Giants were fielding a duo of Emmanuel Burriss and Bill Hall every day. The cost didn’t seem terribly high. Good deal.

The Orlando Cabrera deal I simply don’t get. I don’t know, maybe he’ll help some, but I just don’t see it. He can’t hit, and that seems obvious. On the other hand, he does seem a defensive upgrade over Tejada. He’s probably also an offensive upgrade over Crawford, but he’ll lose some of that gain on defense. And the gain is probably very little to begin with. Again, I don’t really get it. More than anything, it says to me the Giants don’t have a lot of faith in Tejada period, or in his recovering and becoming at all productive. I don’t see how you keep both players. As far Thomas Neal goes, I don’t think they’ll be missing much of him down the road.

Julian: I’d give it a B-. They entered the trade deadline with a few needs: middle infield, catcher, and offense. They somewhat fulfilled two of those needs. I like Jeff Keppinger as a second baseman, especially in a platoon with Mike Fontenot, and the cost to acquire him was pretty decent, all things considered. I was perfectly content with that trade. The Carlos Beltran trade, on the other hand, I didn’t like much at first, but I think I’ve warmed up to it. Beltran’s still a fantastic player, and adds a lot to a lineup desperately in need of offense. Normally I wouldn’t have been content giving up a premium prospect for a rental, but I trust the Giants’ internal evaluations of their pitching development: i.e. if they say they have enough depth to trade Zack Wheeler, I'll believe ‘em. The Orlando Cabrera trade, though, wasn’t a good one. Cabrera is no better than Miguel Tejada, and is probably a replacement-level shortstop…and the Giants gave up a somewhat-decent prospect in order to acquire him. The fact that they haven’t addressed their needs at the catching position is rather bothersome, as I feel like they had the opportunity to trade Santiago Casilla for Yorvit Torrealba. Torrealba’s not having a great season, but he’s an obvious upgrade over Chris Stewart, and the Giants have the depth such that Casilla was expendable.

Zack: I think Brian Sabean got the job done this year, and at the end of the day, that’s more than you can say about a lot of other GM’s. The Keppinger deal was excellent, as is often the case when trading two live arms for a useful player. I wasn’t a huge fan of the Cabrera trade, but it’s not like the front office was going to give Neal a chance to play anyway. As for Beltran – I believe that Sabean ultimately made the right decision in acting early because it was fairly obvious that the Mets weren’t going to settle for anything less than a top prospect.

2. Assuming that Carlos Beltran does well down the stretch, would you re-sign him this offseason? What's the biggest contract you'd consider giving him?

Rory: I would re-sign Beltan for a one-year deal, sure. He’d have to continue to play well and look good health-wise. In other words, he’d have to be moving around pretty well in the outfield and on the bases. I think a one-year deal of around $12 million would be appropriate, if he’d take that. But I doubt it. I’d start to get very uncomfortable with anything more than one season and upwards of $18-$20 million. The Giants have been bitten by this too many times, and you wonder when they’ll learn their lesson. The hope isn’t that he re-signs, it’s that he helps them run away with the NL West and gets you somewhere deep into October.

Julian: He’s still an injury risk, and he’s on the wrong side of 30, so I wouldn’t sign him for any longer than two years. At most, I’d give him a two-year $25MM contract, which I realize is somewhat cheap.

Zack: If Beltran puts up offensive numbers close to his career averages (.371 wOBA), I think we would have to try. A lot can change in a few months, but at this point, I can see Ross leaving via free agency, Rowand being Rowand for one more year, and Schierholtz being a solid, but not spectacular corner outfielder. Belt and Torres are the real wild cards in my mind. Since next year’s free agent market is fairly thin, and the Giants don’t have many legitimate options in the upper minors, I would consider giving Beltran something similar to Raul Ibanez’s 3 year, $31.5 M deal.

3. How pressing is the Giants' need for a catcher?

Rory: It’s maybe not as acute as I thought it was about a month ago, but it’s still a need in my opinion. Chris Stewart couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. Meanwhile, Eli Whiteside has actually been hitting decently of late and has a 92 OPS+ on the season (88 last season). That’s not bad at all. What makes me cringe, though, is that he doesn’t control the running game at all, doesn’t block well, and has had several gaffs of late. Just total brain farts that have cost the Giants an out or a base.

Julian: I don’t think it’s as pressing as it has been made out to be: in other words, I think the Eli Whiteside/Chris Stewart duo has done better than most think. Which is not saying all that much. For example, Giants catchers hit .235/.337/.353 in July, which was good for 0.7 fWAR, ninth-most in the majors. That said, they’re not a true talent .330+ OBP catching duo…I’m fine with Eli Whiteside catching on a semi-frequent basis, but there seem to be plenty of options for finding an upgrade over Chris Stewart. It’s not an extremely pressing need – i.e. the Giants can get by without upgrading at catcher, but it’s such an easy fix, that it’d be a shame if they didn’t.

Zack: As mentioned many times before, there aren’t many acceptable catchers out there that other teams are willing to give up. Now that the normal trade deadline has passed, it’s unlikely that a player like Ramon Hernandez will slip down to the Giants. Whiteside and Stewart both have their flaws, but together they make a decent tandem. I’m a little bit glad that Brian Sabean didn’t give up anything of value for someone like Miguel Olivo or even Yorvit Torrealba, as they aren’t as big of an upgrade as some people seem to think.

4. In seven starts since June 22nd, Ryan Vogelsong has tossed 43.1 innings with 19 walks and only 25 strikeouts, raising possible concerns. What do you see him doing down the stretch, and in 2012 (as he's arb-eligible)?

Rory: I honestly have no idea what to expect from Vogelsong, especially the further out you project him. For the rest of the season? I think I’d be satisfied with a league-average performance. The peripherals have really taken a hit of late and the command is becoming an issue, which has always been his biggest problem. I do think he’s made significant strides this season, but him settling somewhere in the middle seems more likely than him continuing to pitch to a 2.00 ERA. I’d offer him arbitration without question and hope for the best. If he’s a league-average starter next season, and nothing more, maybe that allows the Giants to dump Barry Zito, simply to wash their hands of him. With his current velocity, I no longer believe Zito is a league-average pitcher; in fact, I think he’s pitching his way out of baseball.

Julian: Vogelsong’s career path is so unique that it’s hard to really know what to expect. ZiPS projects him for an FIP in the mid-4’s over the rest of the season, but I’d take the under. I think he could be good for a 3.50 ERA/FIP down the stretch, and in 2012 too. Given that he doesn’t really have much of a track record, though, I think he should be approached with a certain level of caution/skepticism. Just like I wouldn’t be surprised if he maintains a sub-4 ERA throughout 2012, I also wouldn’t be shocked if he’s out of the majors entirely by the end of 2012. I just don’t know for sure with Vogelsong.

Zack: Based on his 3.67 FIP, I’d say a mid-3’s ERA sounds fairly realistic down the stretch, but then again, I’ll admit I’ve been expecting Vogelsong to regress for months. We’d all like him to pitch like an ace going forward, but as his 3.97 SIERA reveals, he’s more likely to be a slightly above average pitcher in 2012 and beyond, and frankly, I’ll take that in a heartbeat.

5. Tim Lincecum's command has slipped over his last 10 starts, as he's averaged 4.88 walks per nine innings. Overall, his walk rate has gotten progressively worse since 2009, and it seems that's what's preventing him from absolute dominance. Will he ever again match or best his numbers from 2009?

Rory: That’s a tough one for me. I have to try to be realistic and understand the differences between what I desperately want and what seems most likely. I completely agree with you that walks are what separate him from total dominance. He has a career rate of 3.29 and a season rate of 3.54, so he’s pretty close to what you might expect. And, if I’m being honest, I don’t think he’ll improve on it much. I sometimes wonder if he compromises command for velocity. If that’s the case, I don’t see command improving because his fastball is far more likely to continue to trickle down towards 90 than to get back to the 94-mph average velocity from 2008. Regardless, he’s still a fantastic weapon and a top-of-the-rotation starter. An Ace.

Julian: He’s still just 27, but the 2009 season was so excellent that it’s hard to top, especially considering his recent struggles with command.

Zack: I’ll be realistic – I don’t think Lincecum will ever match, much less best his incredible 2009 season. Since 1961, there have only been 20 seasons in which a pitcher has thrown more than 200 innings with a K/9 higher than 10 and a BB/9 lower than 3. Only three pitchers – Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, and Pedro Martinez – have done it more than once. Lincecum will go on to have a very excellent career, but I don’t see the pure swing-and-miss stuff ever fully returning.